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The first two times you hit a ball in a rally matter more to winning a point in tennis than all the shots that follow. Traditional tennis statistics focus on simple metrics such as first serve percentages and unforced errors. We identify how the point starts and ends but fail to acknowledge how many shots were struck. The most important metric in tennis has been hiding in plain sight for generations.
"… all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.” (George Box) Athletic departments at schools with under-enrollment have been caught in a bad-model trap, where the NCAA's accounting conventions lead them to make harmful economic decisions in the false belief they are cutting costs. Andy Schwarz (PCL, OSKR) works through why the accounting gets the economics so wrong, provides detailed examples from schools that have made mistaken cuts in 2020, and outlines a solution to avoid these errors going forward.
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