Research Papers

William Melville, Robert Greathouse, Tristan Mott, Christopher Archibald, David Grimsman

In 2023, Major League Baseball increased the width of bases from 15 to 18 inches and limited the pitcher’s pickoff attempts to two, with a third failed attempt resulting in a balk. These rule changes led to an increase in stolen base attempts and a reduction in caught stealing rates. We present a comprehensive analysis of stolen base and pickoff strategies under the 2023 rule changes. We model the interaction between pitcher and base stealer as an extensive-form game called the pitcher’s dilemma, and we define optimal base stealing, pickoff, pitchout, and hit and run strategies by solving for equilibria in various versions of the pitcher’s dilemma.