The Hot Hand: A New Approach to an Old “Fallacy”

Download the
Full Paper Here
Authors

Andrew Bocskocsky

John Ezekowitz

Carolyn Stein

Abstract

Abstract: The vast literature on the Hot Hand Fallacy in basketball rests on the assumption that shot selection is independent of player-perceived hot or coldness. In this paper, we challenge this assumption using a novel dataset of over 83,000 shots from the 2012-2013 National Basketball Association (NBA) season, combined with optical tracking data of both the players and the ball. We create a comprehensive model of shot difficulty using relevant initial shot conditions, and use it to show that players who have exceeded their expectation over recent shots shoot from significantly further away, face tighter defense, are more likely to take their team’s next shot, and take more difficult shots. We then turn to the Hot Hand itself and show that players who are outperforming will continue to do so, conditional on the difficulty of their present shot. Our estimates of the Hot Hand effect range from 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points in increased likelihood of making a shot.

Join Us

Immerse yourself in 2 days of sports analytics, business, and technology

Buy Now