Enhancing NBA True Shot Charts: A Probabilistic Spatial Approach to Rebounding and Possession Value

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Authors

Stephanos, Dembe

Abstract

This paper introduces a Rebound Rate Over Expected (RROE) metric for teams and players using NBA tracking data. The metric is derived from a spatial model that employs Voronoi diagrams based on player positions and hex maps of rebound locations. Building on recent shot charting advancements, we extend the shot charts to create a topographical court map that integrates expected points across all scoring opportunities—made field goals, free throws, and second-chance points—providing a detailed evaluation of rebounding impact.