Causal Impact of Offensive Linemen on Pass Plays

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Authors

Jenkins, Ben

Abstract

We introduce causal inference techniques to measure the impact of offensive linemen on NFL pass plays. The majority of techniques to measure player performance in sports analytics rely solely on correlation. Player credit allocation is often framed as a prediction problem, which is limited to learning patterns and cannot identify cause and effect relationships. We demonstrate its superiority over traditional supervised learning techniques, and provide a framework that can be adapted to other positions and across sports.