Bettor Up: Assess, Analyze, and Achieve

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Abstract

Clay Graham, Chief Analytical Architect, Advantage Analytics LLC
Candace Graham, President/Owner, Epic Win Group LLC
Sola Talabi, Lead Nuclear Engineer, Pittsburgh-Technical

Abstract

With the repeal of the “Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act” betting on athletic competition in the United States is now taking on a modicum of legitimacy. Our focus will be investing on baseball games. At the heart of sports betting is calculating the probability of winning the game in general and the bet in particular. Accurately quantifying matchups is essential for prediction consistency and reproducibility. Concurrently sizing the stake (bets) is the foundation to enhancing profitability. Incorporating OPS and multiple methods of calculating the probability of winning generates a very accurate assessments for the outcome of the games. Effectively sizing of the investments (bets) by combining these probabilities with game characteristics generates prediction accuracy of over 62% and while growing profits per bet from 9% to in excess of 15%.

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