“Quality vs Quantity”: Improved Shot Prediction in Soccer using Strategic Features from Spatiotemporal Data

Download the
Full Paper Here
Authors

Patrick Lucey
Alina Bialkowski
Mathew Monfort
Peter Carr
Iain Matthews

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, we present a method which accurately estimates the likelihood of chances in soccer using strategic features from an entire season of player and ball tracking data taken from a professional league. From the data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of the ten-second window of play before a shot for nearly 10,000 shots. From our analysis, we found that not only is the game phase important (i.e., corner, free-kick, open-play, counter attack etc.), the strategic features such as defender proximity, interaction of surrounding players, speed of play, coupled with the shot location play an impact on determining the likelihood of a team scoring a goal. Using our spatiotemporal strategic features, we can accurately measure the likelihood of each shot. We use this analysis to quantify the efficiency of each team and their strategy.

Join Us

Immerse yourself in 2 days of sports analytics, business, and technology

Buy Now