The EAGLE has landed: Real-time Win Probabilities in Men’s Major Golf Tournaments

Golf is both one of the simplest sports and one of the hardest to forecast: favorites only wind up winning majors around 10% of the time. But with enough data, simple scorecards contain enough clues about weather, hazards, and rapidly evolving evaluations of players’ skill, yielding much more accurate predictions as tournaments proceed. This presentation will peer into the innards of the Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator, a dynamic Monte Carlo-based model trained on a dataset of 450,000 holes, which yields live-updating probabilities for each potential score by each player on each remaining hole in a tournament, as well as their corresponding odds of victory.

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