Dequantizing the Player Draft Using Extreme Value Theory

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Drafting and trading of players in professional leagues is somewhat unwieldy, especially for high-value picks and players where the value to be transferred is large and indivisible, i.e. quantized. Franchises must deal with complex trading scenarios and empirical Draft Charts that are known to be flawed. Extreme Value Theory gives a solid mathematical basis to the Draft Chart, and we can use it to transform drafting and trading into a free market for talent. The traditional reverse-order draft with lottery is arbitrary and unfair; I propose to replace it with a system based on ‘draft points’ that truly reflects the needs of each franchise.

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