Identifying a New Metric for Football Efficiency
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Can one determine objectively, using numbers, how “good” a team is? This presentation leverages existing football game data to construct a “football efficiency” metric. This new number allows for a higher degree of confidence when predicting a winner during comparisons of efficiency. Instead of using misleading information, such as total yards or points per game, this efficiency number measures the average amount of yards an offensive team must attain in order to score a single point. Consequently defensive efficiency can also be measured by examining which defensive teams force offenses to work the hardest to earn every point they score. This efficiency metric is extremely simple, yet it has a very high correlation to the win% of a team over the course of a season. Calculated efficiency ratings for NCAA teams were compared against the BCS rankings at the end of the season with very positive results.