What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball
With a majority of top sports teams using analytics to build their roster, the value of statistical analysis is hard to argue against. However, numbers don't always tell the whole story, and at the end of the day, the pressure is on the decision maker to make the right move. On this panel, general managers and team owners will provide a glimpse into the decision making process that goes on behind the numbers.
Panel Lead: Hana Peljto - Hana@sloansportsconference.com
Panelists
Mark Cuban
Owner, Dallas Mavericks and Co-Founder & Chairman, HDNet
In September 2001, Mark Cuban and co-founder Philip Garvin launched HDNet, the world’s first national television network broadcasting all of its programming in spectacular 1080i high-definition television (HDTV). Fueled by Cuban’s business leadership and enthusiasm, HDNet has quickly emerged as the leading provider of quality HDTV news, entertainment and sports programming.
Cuban, who grew up in Pittsburgh, PA, was an entrepreneur at an early age. He began with several small businesses that he launched as a teen, and then put himself through Indiana University by doing everything from providing disco lessons to starting a chain letter. He always seemed to be selling what people wanted. Soon after college, Cuban started his own computer consulting firm, MicroSolutions. By 1990, after seven years of nonstop work, the company was grossing $30 million a year. It was then sold to Compuserve. Cuban retired, but not for long.
In 1995, he and partner Todd Wagner co-founded Broadcast.com, an Internet service that provided streaming audio and video of live news, radio, television and sporting events. Broadcast.com then gained notoriety when it showcased events such as President Clinton’s Grand Jury testimony and a Victoria’s Secret fashion show. In launching Broadcast.com, Cuban hired a group of industrious and inventive employees, offering stock options in lieu of big paychecks. The gamble paid off when Broadcast.com went public, and was then purchased by Yahoo in 1999, making Cuban one of the wealthiest people in the country.
In January of 2000, Cuban fulfilled a dream by purchasing the Dallas Mavericks NBA franchise. The face of the organization began to change immediately. He was successful in instilling a sense of pride and passion into Mavericks’ fans by being the ultimate role model, cheering the team from the stands. He also became the only owner in team sports to encourage fan interaction through email on his own personal computer. His commitment to do everything in his power to improve the team has paid off, as the Mavericks finished the 2002-03 season with a franchise record 60 wins.
Today, Cuban’s passion is high definition television, and he firmly believes HD is the next step in TV’s evolution. His company operates two 24x7 all-HD networks, HDNet and HDNet Movies. HDNet provides viewers with exciting and topical news, sports, music and entertainment programming. The network features up to 20 hours of original programming each week, all produced in the highest quality 1080i HDTV format – more original high-definition programming than any other network.
HDNet news and entertainment includes original series “HDNet World Report,” “Face 2 Face with Roy Firestone,” “Art Mann Presents,” “HDNet Concert Series,” and “True Music,” as well as every episode of the acclaimed Warner Bros. series “Smallville.” Live sports productions include NASCAR auto racing, National Hockey League and Major League Soccer games. HDNet Movies, the company’s second network, features a wide selection of major studio’s theatrical releases – all uncut, unedited, and appearing in their original aspect ratio - as well as features produced and finished in true 1080i high-definition.
Cuban has partnered once again with Todd Wagner to create 2929 Entertainment, an entertainment holding company that owns 100% of Landmark Theaters, Magnolia Pictures Distribution, and Rysher Entertainment, and holds a stake in Lions Gate Entertainment. 2929 has also created 2929 Productions to produce television and theatrical releases and HDNet Films to produce high-definition movies for simultaneous release on television and in theaters.
Jonathan Kraft
President, The Kraft Group
Jonathan A. Kraft is President and Chief Operating Officer of The Kraft Group. The Kraft Group is a private holding company headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. The Group is comprised of companies in the paper and packaging industries, sports and entertainment, real estate, and private equity investing.
In paper and packaging the Group’s holdings include the Rand-Whitney Group, a manufacturer of corrugated containers, and International Forest Products Corporation (IFP) a trader of paper commodities as principal doing business in 80 countries. The Kraft Group also owns Rand-Whitney Containerboard a manufacturer of 100% high performance recycled linerboard.
In sports and entertainment the Group’s holdings include the National Football League’s, 2001, 2003, & 2004 World Champion New England Patriots, the New England Revolution of Major League Soccer, Gillette Stadium and Patriot Place. The privately funded Gillette Stadium opened in the spring of 2002 and represents an investment of over $350 million by The Kraft Group. This investment is the largest private investment in a sports facility in the United States. In 2002 Kraft was named to the Sports Business Journal’s “40 Under 40 Most Powerful People in Sports” and named the Sports Business Daily’s “Sports Industrialist of the Year”.
The Kraft Group also holds numerous private equity investments and is involved in a number of real estate developments.
As a graduate of Williams College (1986), Kraft received his MBA from Harvard Business School (1990). He is on the board of directors for several organizations including the Children’s Hospital Trust and Carmel Container Systems Ltd. (Israel’s largest packaging company, of which The Kraft Group is its largest shareholder). Kraft currently serves as a member of the Overseers’ Committee to Visit Harvard Business School, as well as, being a member of the Board of Trustees for Williams College and the Belmont Hill School.
Jonathan and his wife Patti have two sons and a daughter.
Daryl Morey
General Manager, Houston Rockets
Daryl Morey enters his fourth season with the Houston Rockets and his third as the team’s head of all basketball operations. Morey, who officially assumed his current position on May 10, 2007, previously served as the team’s Assistant General Manager after joining the organization on Apr. 3, 2006. He was re-signed as the team’s General Manager and Managing Director of Basketball Operations on Sept. 25, 2009.
Morey has built a Rockets team that has gone a combined 108-56 (.659) and has set a number of team records over his two seasons as General Manager. His ability to manage and bolster the roster earned him YAHOO.com Executive of the Year accolades in 2008-09. In addition to earning votes for 2008-09 NBA Executive of the Year, Morey was named “Top 50 Most Influential in Basketball” in 2009 by HOOPSWORLD. Morey was also recognized in 2009 as one of “The 10 Most Creative People in Sports” by Fast Company magazine.
Houston actually registered a 53-29 mark in 2008-09 to give the team a third consecutive 50-win season for the first time in team annals (52-30 in 2006-07 and 55-27 in 2007-08). The Rockets also advanced to the Western Conference Semifinals for the first time since 1997, taking the L.A. Lakers to a Game Seven despite playing without Tracy McGrady and losing the services of Yao Ming for the final four contests of that series. In 2007-08, the Rockets won a remarkable 22 straight games, which stands as the second-longest winning streak in professional sports history.
Despite entering the 2009 NBA Draft without a pick, Morey was able to secure the draft rights to Central Florida guard Jermaine Taylor (32nd overall selection) and Arizona forward Chase Budinger (44th overall selection). Morey then signed free agent Trevor Ariza from the L.A. Lakers and acquired the rights to Australian center David Andersen from the Atlanta Hawks.
He also made a number of transactions during the 2008 NBA Draft that helped bring in Memphis forward Joey Dorsey and Syracuse forward Donté Greene, who became a significant component in the acquisition of Ron Artest from the Sacramento Kings. During the 2008-09 season, Morey acquired guard Kyle Lowry from the Memphis Grizzlies and forward Brian Cook from the Orlando Magic as part of a three-team trade.
After taking over as General Manager, Morey worked with Owner Leslie Alexander to secure Rick Adelman as the 11th head coach in club history. In the 2007 NBA Draft, Morey selected Aaron Brooks in the first round (26th overall selection) and traded for the draft rights to Carl Landry (31st overall selection). Morey then traded Vassilis Spanoulis to acquire Argentine forward Luis Scola from the San Antonio Spurs. He also re-signed free agent Chuck Hayes. Scola (First Team) and Landry (Second Team) each went on to earn T-Mobile NBA All-Rookie Team honors in 2007-08.
Morey came to Houston after serving three years as SVP Operations for the Boston Celtics. With the Celtics, his responsibilities included the development of analytical methods and technology to enhance basketball decisions, such as the draft, trades and free agency.
Prior to his time with the Celtics, Morey worked as a Principal consultant with an emphasis on sports at The Parthenon Group, a leading strategy consulting firm. While at Parthenon, he led the Joe O’Donnell/Steve Karp Boston Red Sox acquisition team and the current Celtics ownership group acquisition team. Morey was also a statistical consultant with STATS, Inc., the industry pioneer in the use of sports statistics highlighted in the Michael Lewis book Moneyball.
Morey holds a bachelor’s degree in computer science with an emphasis on statistics from Northwestern University, as well as an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management. Morey also served as the professor for the MIT Sloan class, “Analytical Sports Management.” He continues to be the chairperson for the annual MIT Sloan Sports Conference, the largest annual sports conference hosted by a business school.
Morey grew up in a small town near Medina, Ohio. Married for 13 years, he and his wife have two children, ages nine and seven years old.
Bill Polian
President, Indianapolis Colts
Bill Polian is in his 12th season as President of the Indianapolis Colts. Polian oversees all football and administrative aspects of the Colts. His football blueprint has established one of the best periods of achievement in Colts history, and it has placed Indianapolis among the NFL’s elite teams.
Since Polian’s 1998 arrival, no NFL team has had more overall playoff appearances than the Colts. Since 1999, the club has amassed a 114-46 (.713) mark to stand as the NFL’s winningest regular-season team by a margin of four games over its nearest competitor. The Colts are the only team to make the playoffs nine times in the last 10 seasons, advancing to the divisional, conference or league title round in five of the past six years. The club leads the NFL with seven consecutive playoff appearances and is the only NFL team to have double-digit victory totals and playoff berths annually since the 2002 NFL Realignment. The Colts have won six division championships (1999, 2003-07) during Polian’s tenure. The Colts (three times) join Chicago, San Francisco and New England (all twice) as the only franchises to amass 50+ regular-season victories in a four-year span, while the club’s 63 victories from 2003-07 and 2004-08 tie the second-highest five-year total in the NFL’s 89 seasons.
The 2008 Colts finished with a 12-4 record to become the only NFL team with 12+ victories in six consecutive seasons. Indianapolis produced eleven-plus victories for the sixth consecutive year, joining Dallas as the only teams to accomplish that feat, and last season was the club’s seventh consecutive with 10+ victories, a streak that ties the second-longest in NFL history. Additionally, Indianapolis became the only NFL team to win seven or more consecutive regular-season games in five consecutive seasons. From 2003-07, the club won a franchise-record five straight AFC South championships, placing Indianapolis as one of nine teams since the 1970 Merger to win five or more consecutive division crowns. The 2006 Colts culminated years of franchise dedication by winning Super Bowl XLI, 29-17 over Chicago. It was the club’s first title appearance in 36 years. The Super Bowl XLI victory brought the club its fourth World Championship and the first since its move to Indianapolis.
In 2002, Polian oversaw the hiring of Coach Tony Dungy. Together they produced seven consecutive playoff teams, while Dungy became the winningest Colts head coach. Polian led the hiring of Coach Jim Caldwell in 2009. In 1999, the Colts produced a 10-game turnaround from 1998, then the best one-season improvement in NFL history.
Polian and pro football success are synonymous. In 21 seasons as a general manager or president with Indianapolis, Carolina and Buffalo, his teams have made 15 playoff, seven championship game and four Super Bowl appearances, while winning a World Championship. Polian’s Buffalo teams reached the Super Bowl three times and reached the big game again the year after his departure. He built Carolina into the winningest expansion franchise in sports history, taking the club to the NFC Championship game in its second season. He helped build Grey Cup title teams with two CFL franchises (Montreal and Winnipeg).
Polian’s teams have produced a combined regular-season record of 214-137. Discounting the start-up seasons of 1985-86 at Buffalo, 1995 at Carolina and 1998 in Indianapolis, Polian’s mark is 198-89, a .690 winning percentage. Polian has been part of 12 11+-victory seasons and has won a division championship at every stop.
Polian’s record is unique among NFL administrators. He was recognized by The Sporting News in 1999 as Executive of the Year, his fifth time as the award’s winner. Polian and the late George Young are the only executives to win the award five or more times. Polian, Young and the late Jim Finks are the only men to win the award multiple times.
A keen judge of talent, Polian’s expertise has changed the face of the Colts. His first eleven draft classes yielded QB-Peyton Manning, RBs-Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai, WRs-Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, LBs-Rob Morris and Cato June, DEs-Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, DBs-Bob Sanders, Antoine Bethea, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, OTs-Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh, OGs-Jake Scott, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard and TE-Dallas Clark, among others. Polian also found key free agent additions in C-Jeff Saturday, K-Mike Vanderjagt, RB-Dominic Rhodes, LB-Gary Brackett and DB-Melvin Bullitt. Indianapolis ended the 2008 season with 48 of 53 active-roster players having played only for the Colts. Manning, James, Addai, WR-Marvin Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, Mathis, Vanderjagt, OT-Tarik Glenn, Saturday, June, Bethea and Sanders have earned Pro Bowl honors during Polian’s tenure.
Polian entered the league as a pro scout for Kansas City in 1978. He worked five years with the Chiefs before moving to Winnipeg of the CFL as personnel director. He helped build a team that won two CFL Championships. He served as personnel director with the Chicago Blitz of the USFL in 1984. Polian joined Buffalo in 1984 as pro personnel director and was promoted to general manager on December 30, 1985. Under Polian, Buffalo reversed a record of 8-40 from 1984-86 to a 58-22 mark from 1988-92. The Bills reached Super Bowls XXV, XXVI and XXVII during Polian’s tenure, then added a fourth Super Bowl in 1993. Polian presented former Buffalo Head Coach Marv Levy at his Pro Football Hall of Fame induction in 2001.
Polian served as Vice President of Football Development for the NFL during the 1993 season. He helped formulate and implement the league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Long active in league affairs, Polian serves as a member of the NFL Competition Committee, Diversity Committee, Management Council Senior Executive Committee and is Chairman of the College Relations Committee.
Bill Simmons
Columnist, ESPN
Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and New York Times best selling Author of The Book of Basketball.
Moderator
Michael Lewis
Author, Moneyball and Blindside
Michael Lewis has published nine books on various subjects, all but one of them New York Times best sellers. The Blind Side, published in 2006, tells the story of Michael Oher, a poor, illiterate African-American kid living on the streets of Memphis whose life is transformed after he is adopted by white Evangelical Christians. Before that he wrote Moneyball, a book ostensibly about baseball but also about the way markets value people. His other works include The New New Thing, about Silicon valley during the Internet boom; Losers, about the 1996 Presidential campaign; and Liar’s Poker, a Wall Street story based in part on his own experience working as an investment banker for Salomon Brothers. He is a contributing writer to Vanity Fair, and also writes often for the The New York Times Magazine, but his articles have also appeared in The New Yorker, Gourmet, Slate, Sports Illustrated, Foreign Affairs, and Poetry Magazine. He has served as editor and columnist for the British weekly The Spectator and as senior editor and campaign correspondent for The New Republic. He has filmed and narrated short pieces for ABC-TV’s “Nightline,” and made and a four part documentary on the social consequences of the internet for the BBC.
Mr. Lewis grew up in New Orleans and remains deeply interested and involved in the city. He holds a B.A. in art history from Princeton and an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. He lives in Berkeley, California with his wife, Tabitha Soren, and their three children: Quinn, Dixie and Walker. His most recent book is Home Game: An Accidental Guide to Fatherhood, about his attempts to raise them.
His next book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, about Wall Street, will be published by W.W. Norton on March 15th.







